,b>Dallas Mavericks
COACH: Don Nelson (8th season, 297-229).
LAST SEASON: 52-30, 3rd in the Midwest Division. Lost in the 1st round of the
playoffs.
MEN AT WORK: Swingman Michael Finley (18.6 ppg, 4.5 rpg) and all-star F Dirk Nowitzki
(21.8, 8.7 rpg) will be the top two offensive options, with newly acquired PG
Jason Terry (16.8 ppg, 5.4 apg) also a threat. The Mavs hope that acquiring Erick
Dampier (12.3 ppg, 12 rpg) will fill defensive holes in the post. The Mavs re-signed
Orlando native Marquis Daniels (8.5 ppg, 2.6 rpg), traded for SG Jerry Stackhouse
(13.9 ppg, 3.6 rpg) and drafted PG Devin Harris at No. 5.
DANGEROUS INTERSECTION: Dallas was the NBA’s top-scoring team (105.2 ppg)
but was second-to-last in points allowed (100.8 ppg). Dampier is a legit shot-blocker
and rebounder (if healthy), but Nowitzki will have his hands full trying to defend
opposing Western power forwards. The Mavs chose not to re-sign PG Steve Nash,
who made their team go. Relying on Terry to master Nelson’s offense is going
to hurt the team early. Stackhouse, a usual starter, is going to be the sixth
man. He’s never been known for team play.
EXIT: Losing Nash will hurt the Mavs, but not enough to take a huge dive. They’re
still a threat to win 50 games.
Houston Rockets
COACH: Jeff Van Gundy (2nd season, 45-37).
LAST SEASON: 45-37, 5th in the Midwest Division.
MEN AT WORK: Houston made one of the biggest trades of the summer, acquiring former
Orlando Magic all-star Tracy McGrady_who led the league in scoring (28 ppg, 6
rpg, 5.5 apg) – along with Juwan Howard, Reece Gaines and Tyronn Lue. C Yao
Ming (17.5 ppg, 9 rpg) is one of the NBA’s best big men. Swingman Jimmy Jackson
(12.9 ppg, 6.1 rpg) provides leadership, scoring and defensive play the Rockets
will need. Lue (10.5 ppg, 4.2 apg) and Howard (17 ppg, 7 rpg) will help carry
the scoring burden – as will former Florida State G Bob Sura when he returns
from back surgery.
DANGEROUS INTERSECTION: The Rockets are a sexy pick for the NBA Finals, but the
depth chart at point guard and center (which includes Dikembe Mutombo) are not
championship quality. Houston was one of the best defensive teams but lost a solid
shot-blocker (Kelvin Cato) in the McGrady trade. Mutombo must play better post
defense, or Yao will have to play too much.
EXIT: One of the best things to watch this year (for non-Magic fans) will be the
start of the McGrady-Yao era. Houston should win 50 games and gain home court
for the first round of the playoffs.
Memphis Grizzlies
COACH: Hubie Brown (3rd season, 78-78) guided the Grizzlies to their first playoff
berth.
LAST SEASON: 50-32. Lost in the 1st round of the playoffs.
MEN AT WORK: Free-agent SF Brian Cardinal (9.6 ppg, 4.2 rpg), aka "The Janitor,"
is expected to provide hustle and defense to Brown’s blue-collar bunch. Pau
Gasol (17.7 ppg, 7.7 rpg) is on the verge of all-star status, while defensive
whiz James Posey (13.7 ppg, 4.9 rpg) teams with scorers Bonzi Wells (12.3 ppg,
3.6 rpg) and Mike Miller (11.1 ppg, 3.6 apg) on offense. Stromile Swift (1.5 bpg)
and Shane Battier (1.3 steals per game) anchor the interior defense.
DANGEROUS INTERSECTION: Brown is a master at fixing damaged NBA players, from
curing Posey’s shooting woes to getting free-spirited PG Jason Williams (10.9
ppg, 6.8 apg) under control in the half court. The Grizzlies had turnover problems
last year (14.4 per game) and were below average in 3-point shooting (34 percent).
Can they grind it out in the half court, and can Gasol become a consistent go-to
guy?
EXIT: Brown gets the most out of his players and demands fundamental play on rebounding
and defense. The roster is the same as last year, but Memphis will not sneak up
on teams as it did then. The playoffs are in question.
New Orleans Hornets
COACH: Byron Scott (1st season) takes over in New Orleans after being fired by
the New Jersey Nets early last season. He guided the Nets to consecutive NBA Finals
appearances.
RECORD: 41-41, 3rd in Central Division.
MEN AT WORK: With Jamal Mashburn (knee injury) out for the season, the heavy lifting
on offense falls to all-star PG Baron Davis (22.9 ppg, 7.5 apg). C Jamaal Magloire
(13.6 ppg, 10.3 rpg) made his first all-star team last season and was one of the
few Hornets to play well down the stretch. Second-year F David West (3.8 ppg,
4.2 rpg) should see more minutes, and free-agent additions Rodney Rogers (7.8
ppg, 4.4 rpg) and Chris Andersen (3.4 ppg, 4.2 rpg) add outside shooting and interior
defense.
DANGEROUS INTERSECTION: Davis took more 3-pointers (582) than anyone, but the
Hornets were 17th in the NBA in scoring (91.8 ppg). The live-or-die attitude from
outside was New Orleans’ undoing as the season wore on and its shooters cooled
off. There are rifts between Davis and the team’s front office.
EXIT: After looking like the class of the East at the start of last season, the
Hornets were bounced in the first round of the playoffs. They aren’t as deep
as they used to be and won’t push for more than 30-35 wins in their new home
in the Western Conference.
San Antonio Spurs
COACH: Gregg Popovich (9th season, 396-210).
LAST SEASON: 57-25, 2nd in the Midwest Division.
MEN AT WORK: Two-time NBA MVP Tim Duncan (22.3 ppg, 12.4 rpg) is the focus of
the offense and pairs with C Rasho Nesterovic (8.7 ppg, 7.7 rpg) to form an intimidating
interior defense. SG Manu Ginobili (12.8 ppg, 4.5 rpg) signed a long-term deal
to stay in town, while PG Tony Parker (14.7 ppg, 5.5 apg) is on the verge of all-star
status. Combo guard Brent Barry (10.8 ppg, 5.8 apg) is the Spurs’ prized
free-agent signing of the summer and should make up for the departure of Hedo
Turkoglu to Orlando.
DANGEROUS INTERSECTION: San Antonio has ranked no higher than 20th in free-throw
shooting in the past three years, including a last-place finish last season. Aside
from the foul-line woes, the Spurs have to hope that Duncan’s left knee and
ankle are fully healed from last year’s injuries. Ginobili takes risks with
the ball and needs to play under control, and Parker must master Popovich’s
offense. When San Antonio loses, it’s often because other players are too
busy watching Duncan and not moving.
EXIT: Only Indiana and Minnesota had more wins than San Antonio last year. The
Spurs likely will push for 60 wins and a spot in the West finals.
NORTHWEST DIVISION
Denver Nuggets
COACH: Jeff Bzdelik (3rd season, 60-104).
LAST SEASON: 43-39, 6th in the Midwest Division.
MEN AT WORK: SF Carmelo Anthony led the team in scoring (21 ppg) and minutes (36.5
mpg) and finished among team leaders in 3-point percentage, rebounds and steals
last season. The Nuggets base much of their hope on Anthony and his teammates
up front, Kenyon Martin and Marcus Camby. Martin (16.7 ppg, 9.5 rpg) was added
as a free agent to toughen up the interior defense and scoring. Another healthy
season for Camby (8.6 ppg, 10.1 rpg), who played in 72 games last year, would
not hurt.
DANGEROUS INTERSECTION: General Manager Kiki Vandeweghe has kept the Nuggets’
core together while adding Martin and Greg Buckner to provide depth. Denver takes
pride in trying to run teams out of games but was susceptible last year to watching
players go one-on-one in the half-court set. Integrating Martin into the offense
could slow the half-court game. Also, Anthony must become a more willing passer.
EXIT: Denver, which made the playoffs last season for the first time since 1994-95,
has a solid core in Anthony, PG Andre Miller and Martin. It should push the 50-win
mark and challenge for the Northwest Division title.
Minnesota Timberwolves
COACH: Flip Saunders (10th season, 386-300).
LAST SEASON: 58-24. Lost in the Western Conference Finals.
MEN AT WORK: MVP Kevin Garnett (24.2 ppg, 13.9 rpg) is the face of the franchise,
while Sam Cassell (19.8 ppg, 7.3 apg) and Latrell Sprewell (16.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg)
helped get Garnett and the `Wolves to the West finals for the first time. Wally
Szczerbiak (10.2 ppg, 3.1 rpg), a former all-star, is recovered from last year’s
foot injury. The Timberwolves have a capable stable of big men, including Cs Michael
Olowokandi and Ervin Johnson and PFs Mark Madsen and Eddie Griffin.
DANGEROUS INTERSECTION: Sprewell and Cassell, both volatile personalities, are
angry at management for not reaching contract extensions with them, and Szczerbiak
is being mentioned in trade talks. Szczerbiak, Troy Hudson and Olowokandi missed
stretches of last season with injuries. The T-Wolves lack a solid third point
guard who can step in if Cassell and/or Hudson are injured again.
EXIT: Minnesota’s playoff run ended two wins short of the NBA Finals. If
Saunders can work out the playing time/ego issues among Garnett’s supporting
cast, the Wolves should run away with the Northwest Division, get 60 wins and
challenge for the NBA’s best record.
Portland Trail Blazers
COACH: Maurice Cheeks (4th season, 140-106).
LAST SEASON: 41-41, 3rd in the Pacific Division.
MEN AT WORK: PF Zach Randolph (20.1 ppg, 10.5 rpg) is the reigning NBA Most Improved
Player and seems poised for the start of many all-star appearances. PGs Nick Van
Exel (12.6 ppg, 5.3 apg) and rookie Sebastian Telfair give Portland a change of
pace from starter Damon Stoudamire (13.4 ppg, 6.1 apg). Theo Ratliff (7.9 ppg,
3.6 bpg), Shareef Abdur-Rahim (16.3 ppg, 7.5 rpg), Ruben Patterson (6.9 ppg, 3.7
rpg) and Darius Miles (10.9 ppg, 4.5 rpg) round out the Blazers’ athletic
front court.
DANGEROUS INTERSECTION: Patterson wants to be traded, Abdur-Rahim would rather
be the starting small forward than back up Randolph, and Qyntel Woods is in trouble
with the law (again). Cheeks can manage problems like these, but it often detracts
from his ability to get the Blazers to play as a team. For all its individual
talent, Port-land was 21st in scoring (90.7 ppg) and 18th in rebounding (41.7
rpg).
EXIT: The problems this year aren’t as bad as in seasons past. The Blazers
missed the playoffs for the first time in 21 years last season, but Cheeks should
be able to get 40-45 wins out of this group.
Seattle SuperSonics
COACH: Nate McMillan (5th season, 160-153).
LAST SEASON: 37-45, 5th in the Pacific Division.
MEN AT WORK: The Sonics have solid backcourt players in all-star SG Ray Allen
(23 ppg, 5.1 rpg), second-year PG Luke Ridnour (5.5 ppg, 2.4 apg) and Ronald "Flip"
Murray (12.4 ppg). Seattle acquired troubled PF Danny Fortson (3.9 ppg, 4.5 rpg)
in its only major move of the summer. Fortson is expected to provide rebounding
help as Seattle waits for rookie Nick Collison to develop.
DANGEROUS INTERSECTION: McMillan did a decent job of holding the team together
until Allen returned from ankle surgery Dec. 23. Seattle was in the playoff race
until January, but shooters such as Allen and Murray couldn’t hide the Sonics’
lack of bulk and defense. Seattle collected the fewest rebounds in the league
last season (3,225) and could remain near the bottom even with Fortson and Collison
playing major minutes. Allen will be among the league’s top 10 scorers, but
Seattle will be manhandled in the post often.
EXIT: Every team in the Northwest Division made significant offseason changes
and is to be in the playoff race except one: Seattle. The Sonics should be a decent
open-court team, but they won’t win more than 30-35 games that way.
Utah Jazz
COACH: Jerry Sloan (17th season, 917-561).
LAST SEASON: 42-40, 7th in the Midwest Division.
MEN AT WORK: SF Andrei Kirilenko (16.5 ppg, 2.8 bpg) made his first all-star team
last season. Free agents Mehmet Okur (9.6 ppg, 5.9 rpg) and Carlos Boozer (15.5
ppg, 11.4 rpg) and rookie Kris Humphries add size and defense to fix a soft front
court. Ex-Magic player Matt Harpring (16.2 ppg, 8 rpg) is recovered from knee
surgery. PG Carlos Arroyo (12.6 ppg, 5 apg) led Puerto Rico’s upset of the
U.S. team at the Olympics and former Orlando SF Gordan Giricek (11.3 ppg, 3.1
rpg) gets a full camp with Utah.
DANGEROUS INTERSECTION: Owner Larry Miller was one of the biggest spenders this
summer, signing Okur and Boozer to long-term deals and re-signing Giricek and
Arroyo. Utah needs to make sure Kirilenko is locked into a contract extension
so that does not become a distraction. Harpring, Giricek and Arroyo must hit 3-pointers
and open up the inside for Okur and Boozer.
EXIT: Sloan got 42 wins out of an underdog team mostly on his coaching and an
up-tempo offense. With the new additions, a healthy roster and Kirilenko’s
continued growth, Utah figures to push for 43-48 wins and a return to the playoffs
after last year’s absence.
PACIFIC DIVISION
Golden State Warriors
COACH: Mike Montgomery (1st season).
LAST SEASON: 37-45, 4th in the Pacific Division.
MEN AT WORK: High-flying SG Jason Richardson led Golden State in scoring last
season (18.7 ppg) and is expected to team with PGs Speedy Claxton (10.6 ppg, 4.5
apg) and free-agent signee Derek Fisher (7.1 ppg, 2.3 apg) to provide a pressuring
backcourt. Ankle injuries slowed the progress of PF Troy Murphy (10 ppg, 6.2 rpg),
but he is a double-double threat if healthy. The offseason trades that brought
big man Dale Davis (4.4 ppg, 5.2 rpg) and defensive specialist Eduardo Najera
give the Warriors an experienced front court.
DANGEROUS INTERSECTION: Montgomery, who coached at Stanford for 18 years, will
rely on assistants Mario Elie and Terry Stotts to help him learn how to manage
as an NBA coach. The Warriors don’t have prima donnas, but Montgomery must
learn to deal with the egos of NBA players. C Adonal Foyle’s new contract
(six years, $42 million) sets him for life, but Golden State will be disappointed
if he never provides the offense that departed C Erick Dampier did.
EXIT: Golden State is still behind Phoenix, the L.A. Lakers and Sacramento (in
that order) in the Pacific Division. Don’t expect more than 28-34 wins.
Los Angeles Clippers
COACH: Mike Dunleavy (2nd season, 28-54).
LAST SEASON: 6th in the Pacific Division.
MEN AT WORK: The Clippers return their top two scorers, Elton Brand (20 ppg, 10.3
rpg) and ex-Orlando Magic swingman Corey Maggette (20.7 ppg, 5.9 rpg). They hope
the trade that brought swingman Kerry Kittles (13.1 ppg, 4 rpg) will add veteran
leadership for a young team in need of guidance. Chris Kaman (6.1 ppg, 5.6 rpg)
has the size (7 feet, 265 pounds) to be a decent NBA center, and the Clippers
hope he can shore up their interior defense.
DANGEROUS INTERSECTION: The Clippers have enough offense to make the playoffs,
but do they have enough defense? The Clippers were 28-51 by the end of the 2003
calendar year, marking the 10th time since 1994 that they failed to win 30 or
more games in a year. As usual, the reason for L.A.’s failure was defensive
lapses. The Clippers allowed the third-most points per game in the NBA (99.4).
PG Marko Jaric is a decent perimeter defender, but most Clippers are more focused
on scoring averages.
EXIT: Last year’s troubles could be blamed partially on injuries to Brand.
A 35-win season and some signs of defensive improvement in Dunleavy’s second
season are the least to expect.
Los Angeles Lakers
COACH: Rudy Tomjanovich (1st season).
LAST SEASON: 56-26, 1st in Pacific Division. Lost in NBA Finals.
MEN AT WORK: Team owner Jerry Buss turned over the team to SG Kobe Bryant (24
ppg, 5.1 rpg) by trading away C Shaquille O’Neal (21.5 ppg, 11.5 rpg) and
giving Bryant a long-term deal. Brian Grant (8.7 ppg, 6.9 rpg), Caron Butler (9.2
ppg, 4.8 rpg) and Lamar Odom (17.1 ppg, 9.7 rpg) were the Lakers’ asking
price for sending O’Neal to Miami. Former Lakers C Vlade Divac (9.9 ppg,
5.7 rpg) is back.Chucky Atkins (8.4 ppg, 3.5 apg) and Chris Mihm (6.3 ppg, 5.4
rpg) were traded from the Boston Celtics and round out the Lakers’ depth.
DANGEROUS INTERSECTION: Bryant’s obsession with proving he’s the next
Michael Jordan will be challenged. He won’t have O’Neal there to clean
up his mistakes, so Bryant has to trust his teammates now. Grant and Divac are
solid defensive players, but they’re injury prone. Backups Mihm and Slava
Medvedenko (8.3 ppg, 5 rpg) don’t scare anyone. The Lakers’ low-post
game, a strength in the past, will be exposed by good (and mediocre) post players.
EXIT: Even without O’Neal, the Lakers could come close to 50 wins. It all
depends on how willing Bryant is to share the ball with his new supporting cast.
Phoenix Suns
COACH: Mike D’Antoni (2nd season, 21-40).
LAST SEASON: 29-53, 5th in the Pacific Division.
MEN AT WORK: The Suns’ youthful core of Amare Stoudemire (20.6 ppg, 9 ppg),
Shawn Marion (19 ppg, 9.3 rpg) and Joe Johnson (16.7 ppg, 4.7 rpg) remains in
tact, but an offseason overhaul to the backcourt is a big upgrade. After trotting
out untested but talented rookie Leandro Barbosa and washed-up Howard Eisley last
season, all-star Steve Nash (14.5 ppg, 8.8 apg) spurned Dallas to sign a free-agent
deal. Quentin Richardson, also a free-agent signee, defected from the Los Angeles
Clippers.
DANGEROUS INTERSECTION: Nash, Stoudemire, Marion and Richardson should mesh and
thrive in the up-tempo style of game that is becoming en vogue in the West. D’Antoni
will have his hands full breaking Richardson (a career 41 percent shooter) of
some bad habits he picked up the past two years in L.A. Zarko Cabarkapa is probably
Phoenix’s most skilled center, and he’s a second-year player coming
off a wrist injury.
EXIT: Luckily for the Suns, the Pacific Division might be the weakest in the Western
Conference. Phoenix is a year or two from the Pacific crown, but a 40-45 win season
and a chance at the playoffs are possible.
Sacramento Kings
COACH: Rick Adelman (7th season, 301-159).
LAST SEASON: 55-27, 2nd in Pacific Division. Lost in Western Conference semifinals.
MEN AT WORK: PF Chris Webber (18.7 ppg, 8.7 rpg) is considered the Kings’
best player, but all-star SF Peja Stojakovic (24.2 ppg, 6.3 rpg) kept Sacramento
together last season while Webber recovered from a knee injury. The play of all-star
C Brad Miller (14.1 ppg, 10.3 rpg) gave the Kings reason not to re-sign Vlade
Divac. PG Mike Bibby (18.4 ppg, 5.4 apg) is one of the league’s top clutch
players. His backup, Bobby Jackson (13.8 ppg, 3.5 rpg), is a great sixth man and
could start for many teams.
DANGEROUS INTERSECTION: Stojakovic asked to be traded in the offseason, and there
are rumors of bad chemistry on what has been one of the NBA’s most tight-knit
teams. Sacramento was in the top 5 in scoring average (second), field-goal percentage
(first) and 3-point percentage (first) but was a poor shot blocking-team and allowed
13.2 offensive rebounds a game (28th). Defense needs to be a priority.
EXIT: After a 61-win season in 2001, the Kings slowly have begun to fall back
in the West each year. Expect a 50-win season, the Pacific Division title and
a spot in the conference semifinals.
(c) 2004, The Orlando Sentinel (Fla.). Distributed by Knight Ridder/Tribune Information
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